Paul van Hooft

The Future in the Past: Victory, Defeat, and Grand Strategy in the US, UK, France and Germany 

 

My dissertation was awarded the annual prize by the Dutch and Flemish political science associations in 2016.  I am currently adapting it into a book manuscript.

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The dissertation explored the impact of victory and defeat in war on grand strategy, specifically on the use of force and diplomacy. It focused on the experiences of the belligerent states of the Second World War, and in particular on those of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.  It used a combination of methods: regression analysis, historical analysis, counterfactual thought experiments, content analysis of documents, and a series of fifty interviews with American, British, French, and German policymakers.

 

The argument is as follows: victory increases the propensity of states to use force and decreases their propensity to use diplomacy, while defeat fosters the opposite. Experiences with war also shape the strategic preferences of policymakers for certain alliances and military capabilities over others, as well as their perception of threats. Finally, victory and defeat shape the legitimacy of policymakers. In combination with the lessons from war, this leaves enduring patterns of strategic behaviour.